Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
